February 7, 2023

Falling into Pieces. The EU in the Puzzle of Global Trade

Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine are among the causes why globalization is apparently slowing down, thus affecting trade flows and growth potentials. Moreover, current geopolitical tensions and US-China rivalry are further putting the resilience of Global Value Chains to the test.

Is globalization here to stay? Will the multilateral trade architecture withstand the crisis? How to make it fit for purpose in a changed international environment? And what role may the EU, a key trade player, play in all this?

This Policy Paper analyses economic scenarios on the future of globalization, and suggests reform proposals on how to improve the effectiveness and resilience of the world trade system.

Table of Contents

IN BRIEF

WHAT’S AT STAKE – TOWARDS THE END OF GLOBALIZATION?

THE EU IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE CONTEXT: A MODEL AT RISK?

Europe Facing the Risk of a Global Trade Slowdown
WTO: Still Up to the Task?
EU Free Trade Agreements: Enough Is Enough?

THE EU FACING A GLOBALIZATION IN CRISIS?

Regionalization as the New Buzzword?
Strategic Autonomy as the New Mantra: What about Free Trade?
The EU in Global Supply Chains: Doomed to Dependency?
BOX 1 – The EU Positioning in GVCs: Better Than Competitors?, Luca Salvatici, Ilaria Fusacchia – Roma Tre University

THE EU IN A TRADE JIGSAW: FROM DEPENDENCY TO AUTONOMY

EXPLORING OPTIONS

FIRST BEST: REVIVING MULTILATERAL TRADE

BOX 2 – Helping the WTO Move Forward: The EU Role, M. Sait Akman – The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey

SECOND BEST: MAKING GOOD USE OF REGIONALIZATION

BOX 3 – A Regionalization Fit for WTO Rules, Claudia Schmucker – DGAP

OUR TAKE

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